IHS forecasts slowing growth in GaN LED market

According to IHS, the total global revenues for GaN LED climbed by 10.6% in 2013 as the market was powered by high demand from the tablet, mobile backlighting, and lighting segments, but 2013 could also be the last year of the era of double-digit dollar growth for the GaN LED market. The global revenues rose from $11.2 billion in 2012 to $12.4 billion in 2013, but revenue growth in 2014 is projected to be at a sloppy 4%. Shipments will continue to rise, but the market will enter a period of flatness starting in 2015.

Jamie Fox, principal analyst for LEDs at IHS, reports that the combination of growing demands from the lighting and display backlighting segments has driven the strong revenue growth of the GaN LED market we have seen in recent years. However, the trend shows that LED backlighting market revenues have begun to decline even as the lighting segment as a whole continues to expand. This combination of declining growth in backlighting and expansion in the lighting segment will lead to a flat revenue for the GaN LED market in the coming years.

LEDs are used extensively as backlights for LCD panels and have found great growth due to consumer demand for products as TVs and monitors, and more recently for tablets and smartphones. However, backlighting applications will soon reach saturation and the value of the LEDs in every PC monitor and TV shipped has already begun to decrease.

The current leader in GaN LED wafer capacity is Epistar of Taiwan, but Chinese die vendor San’an is projected to take the lead. IHS reports that Epistar will continue its run at the top through most of 2014 but its dominance will end in the fourth quarter where it will be overtaken by San’an. San’an is projected to become soon the new leader due to an increase of planned installation of metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment in 2014. Alice Tao, senior analyst for LEDs and lighting at IHS notes that the Wuhu fab of San’an is planning to install another 100 GaN LED MOCVD machines in addition to the 100 that have been installed in 2011.

GaN LEDs are manufactured on sapphire, silicon carbide, or silicon wafers. GaN-on-silicon (GaN-on-Si) LEDs only account for 1 % of GaN LEDs in 2013, as the majority of GaN LEDs are manufactured on sapphire wafers. However, the growth in the manufacturing of GaN-on-Si LEDs is projected to increase between 2013 and 2020, taking market share away from sapphire and silicon carbide wafers. IHS reports that GaN-on-Si is forecast to increase its market share to 40% by 2020.

Dkins Cho, senior analyst for lighting and LEDs at IHS, reports that silicon wafers are available from 8-inch up to 12-inch in size and are generally cheaper and more abundant, while it is difficult to manufacture large ingots from sapphire entails. The large existing industry for silicon-based manufacturing can be easily redirected to LED manufacturing therefore decreasing the cost of LED fabrication by creating economies of scale. The modification of current manufacturing facilities to accommodate GaN-on-Si LEDs fabrication will likely require minimal investment.

About the Author- This article is contributed by Martini Tech Inc., a nanotechnology company based in Tokyo, Japan and specialized in LED sapphire, sputtering and thin-film deposition, GaN LED technology, MEMS design and MEMS foundry services and patterned sapphire substrates ( PSS ) for LED applications. 

Enhancing solar cell efficiency using nano- and micro-photonic elements

Solar energy is one of the major avenues toward clean, renewable energy future. In theory, it is supposed to be one of the cheapest energy sources around since the sun is free. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by the high cost of photovoltaic cells. Even if solar energy is free, cells that harvest this energy from the sun are expensive to develop and mass-produce, and more importantly, they are inefficient due to their low conversion rate.

The current efficiency of photovoltaic cells is limited due to the inability of a single band gap absorber to convert the energy over a broad spectrum into electric power. This means that only a small fraction of the incident light that hits the photovoltaic cell can actually be converted to electrical power.

The work of Rajesh Menon of the University of Utah and his team seeks to solve this problem by developing manufacturable nano-and microphotonics that improve the overall power-conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells. Their approach has the potential to enable cells that can convert solar energy into electrical energy reach efficiencies of 50% or greater.

Their work focuses on extending a direct-binary search algorithm to design broadband microphotonic elements that can separate incident sunlight into spectral bands and focus these into optimized photovoltaic absorbers. Menon and his team call these optical microphotonic elements “polychromats” which have the potential to achieve optical efficiencies of greater than 90% across the solar spectrum, as compared to previous approaches using prisms, holograms, or dichroic filters. Polychromats can be incorporated into the glass covers of solar panels and can also be manufactured inexpensively via hot embossing.

Polychromats were designed using an optoelectronic model in order to maximize the total peak power density of all cells and fabricated using grayscale lithography on a glass substrate. Experiments demonstrate increases of 42% and 22% in peak power under simulated sunlight when using copper indium gallium (di)selenide solar cells and a combination of silicon and gallium arsenide solar cells, respectively. The team was also able to show that choosing an appropriate design, more compact cells can be fabricated.

Menon also developed optimization algorithms that can design nanostructured scatterers at the interfaces between the absorber and cladding layers in order to improve the coupling of broadband sunlight into resonant guided modes within the absorber. This leads to a considerable increase of the output power density in the photovoltaic cell. The optimization algorithms can be modified to account for oblique incidence angles, with simulations showing that a properly optimized cell can generate over seven times more energy over a year compared to an unoptimized cell. The fabrication of such patterned cells is still a challenge, but recent advances in aligned nanoimprint lithography have the potential for enabling the production of these cells.

One interesting direction of Menon’s research is combining light trapping and spectrum splitting with the use of nanophotonics. Aside from that, advances in high-quality thin-film gallium arsenide cells also indicate the potential of using photonics to enable higher efficiencies in photovoltaic cells in the future. Menon and his team showed that photonics can have an important role in increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic cells, leading to a decrease in their cost and hence enable their widespread adoption and use as a renewable energy source. The conditioning of sunlight using nano- and microphotonics provides unparalleled opportunities for interdisciplinary research and innovation using computation, photonics, and nanofabrication.

About the Author- This article is contributed by Martini Tech Inc., a nanotechnology company based in Tokyo, Japan and specialized in sputtering and thin-film deposition, nanoimprint lithography, nanoimprint mold and replica, photonic crystals, MEMS design and MEMS foundry services and patterned sapphire substrates ( PSS ) for LED applications.

Semiconductor Industry Sales Overview – 2013

According to a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association, worldwide semiconductor sales in 2013 totaled $305.6 billion, hitting an annual record. This was an increase of 4.8% from 2012 sales of $291.6 billion.

Brian Toohey, president and CEO of SIA, reports that this is the first time that the global semiconductor industry exceeded $300 billion in sales for the first time ever, spurred by robust sales growth across nearly all regions and all product segments. Toohey notes that the industry finished the year with the strongest December sales on record, an indication that this momentum is likely to carry over to this year.

Toohey also adds that the semiconductor is becoming ubiquitous and is present in many products, from the home, the car, and mobiles. This indicates a favorable position for the semiconductor industry.

The SIA report indicated that total chip sales for the fourth quarter of 2013 came to $79.9 billion, which was 7.7% higher than the $74.2 billion reported in the fourth quarter of the previous year. In December 2013 alone, chip sales totaled $26.6 billion, which was an increase of 17.3% from December 2012.

The American market showed the biggest growth in sales, exhibiting an increase of 13.1% in its annual semiconductor sales. Europe and the Asia Pacific region also showed increases of 5.2% and 7.0%, respectively. However, sales in Japan actually suffered and decreased by 15.2%, part of which is due to the devaluation of the Japanese yen.

Falan Yinug, SIA director of industry statistics and economic policy, says that Japan has been artificially devaluating the yen in order to stimulate exports, leading to lower sales in the Japanese market, but there could be better growth this year. On the other hand, Europe’s sales had been suffering in 2012 and in the first half of 2013, but the numbers showed that the market there is already recovering.

Among the industry segments, memory was the fastest growing with sales increasing 17.6% in 2013. DRAM performed well in the memory segment, with its sales increasing by 33.3%, while NAND flash also showed strong growth with an 8.1% increase. Optoelectronic products and analog also showed positive growth, with annual sales increases of 5.3% and 2.1%, respectively.

It’s still too early to say whether the record sales is significant in itself as semiconductor sales has fluctuated yearly since 2008. However, even as industry sales remain cyclical, the extreme numbers are slowing down and are being replaced by numbers indicating small but steady growth as the semiconductor industry matures.

A Deutsche Bank Market Research release expects that growth in the industry would accelerate to 8% in 2014, but this projection has already been discounted by many sectors within the industry itself, such as analog and PLDs.

In contrast, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization forecast a more consistent market growth for this year as well as in 2015, projecting sales of up to $317 billion in 2014 and $328 billion by 2015.

About the Author- This article is contributed by Martini Tech Inc., a nanotechnology company based in Tokyo, Japan and specialized in sputtering and thin-film deposition, nanoimprint mold and replica, MEMS design and MEMS foundry services and patterned sapphire substrates (PSS) for LED applications.

Sony to sell Vaio unit, downsize TV division

Sony is aiming to lay off around 5,000 employees by March 2015, sell its Vaio PC unit, and split its TV division as it struggles with financial losses. The company has issued a fiscal warning of a loss of 110 billion yen, in contrast to a previous forecast of a profit of 30 billion yen, for the current fiscal year ending in March.

The layoffs are expected to affect 3,500 employees outside Japan and around 1,500 in the country. The company will start to offer redundancies, potential transfers, and early retirement as the company looks forward to trimming its cost before its 2015 financial year starts.

Meanwhile, the Vaio PC unit is reported to be sold to Japan Industrial Partners, a private equity venture that specializes in turnarounds and buyouts in manufacturing. Japan Industrial Partners said that it aims to reach an agreement by the end of March to buy Vaio from Sony.

Sony has cited “drastic changes” in the computer market as it plans to restructure its TV, PC, and other business divisions. Both Sony and Japan Industrial Partners said that a new company will be established once the Vaio deal is finalized.

The restructuring is expected to cost Sony 90 billion yen over the next two years, but if Sony plans to keep its PC and TV units, then it would also cost them over the long run. The company has often been criticized for having too many units as it is a small player in the global PC business. In the TV division, Sony has been losing money over its Bravia TV operations.

Sony stated that it would stop planning, design, and development of PC products and would focus on its lineup of tablets and smartphones as well as its game consoles. Kazuo Hirai, Sony’s Chief Executive, said that the company’s moves aimed to accelerate the revitalization and growth of their electronics business. However, there is the question as to whether such products can sustain Sony’s growth over a long-term period.

Mitsushige Akino, analyst at Ichiyoshi Investment Management noted that it appears that Sony still has no clear business direction and that the company will face tough times in the near future. Sony has struggled in recent years and has identified gaming consoles, digital imaging, and mobile as the units that it hopes will lead to a turnaround in its electronics business. This projection appears to be well-founded as the company has seen record sales of its new PlayStation 4 console as well as high sales of its Xperia smartphone brand.

Another area that Sony may work on as its exit strategy is in its development of advanced sensing technologies. Sony is already the world’s leader in MEMS and CMOS image sensors. Additionally, at the International CES last month, Hirai talked about future sensing technologies that can capture “unseen” data and enhance human perception and insight. He also talked about the potential of sensing technology in areas such as automotives, skincare, agriculture, and medical monitoring.

About the Author- This article is contributed by Martini Tech Inc., a nanotechnology company based in Tokyo, Japan and specialized in sputtering and thin-film deposition, nanoimprint mold and replica, MEMS design and MEMS foundry services and patterned sapphire substrates for LED applications.

The Potential of 3D NAND Technology

The demand for NAND flash, a type of non-volatile storage device, has been increasing ever since the first iPod launched, especially as the market for smartphones, tablets, and other electronic gadgets is increasing.

The current iteration of NAND technology, called planar or 2D NAND, is projected to reach its limits soon: as process nodes dip below 20 nm and on the path towards 10 nm, scaling of 2D NAND technology is becoming more difficult as physical constraints begin to affect the performance of the basic memory cell design. 

2D NAND technology has yet to reach an actual limit, but it is only a matter of time before it does, so since the current technology being used will soon hit a wall, a more powerful, a next generation iteration called 3D NAND technology is already being worked on by leading electronics companies and memory chipmakers.

Samsung has already announced its 3D NAND technology in the form of a 24-layer, 128 GB chip; Micron and SK Hynix will follow suit in 2014, while other companies, such as Sandisk, are all working on 3D NAND technology.

The memory cells in 3D NAND devices are stacked on top of each other, in contrast to the 2D horizontal grid design in 2D NAND technology.

Moreover, 3D NAND also holds the promise of vertical scaling because can have string heights of more than 128 bits as compared to current 16-bit-tall strings, but in spite of its potential and the announcement by leading companies in the industry, mass production of 3D NAND technology is challenging. 

Jim Handy, from Objective Analysis, stated that the issue with 3D NAND is its complexity: 3D NAND technology does not require cutting-edge lithography, leading to lower manufacturing costs as compared to extended 2D NAND.

However, the vertical scaling component of the manufacturing process would require high aspect ratio holes, which would in turn require new deposition and etching technologies.

Chipmakers are still trying to extend the potential of 2D NAND for the time being, given the cost and production issues surrounding 3D NAND. Memory chipmakers discussed the issues surrounding 3D NAND technology in a December 2013 forum organized and sponsored by Applied Materials, a semiconductor industry equipment manufacturer. Ritu Shrivastava, Vice President Technology Development, at Sandisk Corporation, said that 2D NAND is still more cost-effective than 3D NAND and that 3D NAND is not yet proven in volume manufacturing, although he also adds that 2D and 3D can coexist for the rest of the decade.

Chuck Dennison, Senior Director Process Integration of Micron, presented their current 16 nm 2D NAND technology that can hold up to 128 GB of data and said that the company plans on a 256 GB class of NAND memory as the next step to 3D NAND. 

Finally, Applied Materials outlined some insights regarding the manufacturing process for the more complex structures needed for constructing 3D NAND device architectures. But for the long term, even if significant challenges remain, the best combination of cost, power, and performance will be found in 3D NAND architectures.

About the author– This article is contributed by MartiniTech Inc., a nanotechnology company based in Tokyo, Japan and specialized in sputtering and thin-film deposition, nanoimprint mold and replica, MEMS design and MEMS foundry services and patterned sapphire substrates for LED applications.